A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
