Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
